The scientific and technological innovation plan interprets the "14th Five-Year Plan" scientific and technological development outlook for photovoltaic power generation technology

In recent years, driven by technological advancements, my country's photovoltaic power generation industry has achieved rapid development, reaching top-tier levels in both scale and technology. Looking ahead to the 14th Five-Year Plan period, careful planning and proactive deployment to strengthen photovoltaic technology innovation and industrial upgrading are crucial for enhancing core driving forces and promoting high-quality, low-cost, and large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation.

1. Current Status and Trends of Photovoltaic Power Generation Technology Development

(1) Current status of global photovoltaic power generation technology development

Vigorously developing renewable energy has become the direction and concerted action for the global energy revolution and climate change response. In recent years, photovoltaic power generation, as a key renewable energy generation technology, has experienced rapid development and has become a clean, low-carbon, and cost-competitive form of energy in many countries. In 2020, global installed photovoltaic power generation capacity increased by 127 million kilowatts, bringing the total installed capacity to 707 million kilowatts.

Crystalline silicon cells remain the mainstream technology for photovoltaic cell industrialization, and new cell types are developing rapidly. As a core component of the photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic cells can be primarily categorized into crystalline silicon cells, thin-film cells, perovskite cells, and other types based on their manufacturing processes and raw materials. Crystalline silicon cells, due to their high conversion efficiency, abundant raw material resources, and harmlessness, dominate the large-scale production and application of photovoltaic cells. In recent years, the widespread adoption of PERC (Passivated Emission Rear Contact) technology has further boosted the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon cells. Meanwhile, new cell types, such as perovskite cells, have become a global research hotspot, with conversion efficiency rapidly increasing, approaching that of crystalline silicon cells in laboratory settings. While industrialization is steadily progressing, they still face challenges in large-scale application and device stability.

The sophistication of photovoltaic systems continues to improve, and their application models are diversifying. The number of PV system sub-units continues to expand, with the proportion of 1500V PV systems in use gradually surpassing that of 1000V systems. Grid-connected stability and reliability standards are constantly improving, and the power generation capacity and power quality of PV power stations are continuously improving. Composite applications such as "PV + Agriculture," "PV + Animal Husbandry," "PV + Construction," and "PV + Fisheries" are expanding in scale. The in-depth integration of PV power generation and the power grid, such as microgrids and smart grids, is gradually becoming a new form of business in the power industry.

(II) Development Trends of Global Photovoltaic Power Generation Technology

Countries around the world continue to deepen their layout of innovation in the entire photovoltaic power generation industry chain as a major strategic measure to promote the development of emerging industries. They achieve cost reduction and competitiveness improvement through comprehensive layout of R&D in all aspects of advanced materials, manufacturing and system applications.

Core photovoltaic components are developing towards low energy consumption and low costs. Crystalline silicon cells have established a comprehensive industry chain and will continue to dominate photovoltaic cell production. In the future, they will further develop towards higher conversion efficiency, reduced raw material consumption, lower energy consumption, and lower manufacturing costs. Perovskite cells and tandem cells are important development directions for future photovoltaic cell technology. Countries around the world are investing heavily in these areas, focusing on improving device performance and stability and promoting industrialization. Once issues such as large area and stability are resolved, perovskite cells are expected to transform the industrial landscape of the photovoltaic application market.

Photovoltaic applications are evolving towards diverse scenarios. Countries around the world, based on their specific circumstances, are promoting the development of a variety of new applications, including integrated photovoltaic buildings, floating photovoltaics, photovoltaics-in-agriculture, and photovoltaic carports. Research on these specific product technologies and integrated operation and control technologies has become a key area of ​​research.

(3) Current status of photovoltaic power generation technology in my country

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, driven by the rapid expansion of the industry scale, my country's photovoltaic power generation technology has achieved rapid development, and the industrialization and mass production technology of key components such as photovoltaic cells and modules has reached the top level; production equipment technology has been continuously upgraded and basically achieved localization; the complete set of photovoltaic power generation system technology has been continuously optimized and improved, and the level of intelligence has been significantly improved.

Photovoltaic cell and module technology is rapidly evolving, achieving top-tier industrial manufacturing. By the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, my country's photovoltaic cell manufacturing sector had essentially transitioned from traditional "polycrystalline aluminum back surface area" technology to "monocrystalline PERC" technology. The average conversion efficiency of mainstream, mass-produced crystalline silicon cells increased from 18.5% at the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 22.8%, achieving significant progress. The industrialization of new crystalline silicon cell and module technologies, such as tunneling oxide passivation contacts, HJT (heterojunction junction), and IBC (interlayer back contact), continues to improve. Leading companies have repeatedly broken world records for conversion efficiency in industrialized production, possessing large-scale production capabilities and strong international competitiveness. New-generation cell technologies, such as perovskite, are keeping pace with the world. Research institutions have repeatedly set world records for laboratory conversion efficiency of perovskite cells, and some companies have begun industrialized production research and have repeatedly broken conversion efficiency records for industrialized modules.

The level of photovoltaic power generation manufacturing equipment has significantly improved, with production essentially localized. my country's photovoltaic equipment has progressed from low-end to high-end, with increasing levels of product customization, enhanced production capacity, and improved automation capabilities. Increased automation, digitization, and networking are driving the transformation of photovoltaic manufacturing toward intelligent photovoltaic manufacturing. Production equipment for polysilicon wafers, solar cells, and modules has essentially been localized.

Photovoltaic power generation system technology continues to improve, and intelligent operation and maintenance are driving increased power generation capacity. A wide range of new technologies are being applied to the overall design and system-level optimization of photovoltaic power plants. The adoption of photovoltaic mounting tracking systems and 1500-volt voltages has increased the actual power generation capacity of photovoltaic power generation systems. Intelligent robots, drones, big data, remote monitoring, and advanced communications technologies are already being used in power plant operations.

(IV) Development trend of photovoltaic power generation technology in my country

As the world's largest photovoltaic power generation market, my country has become an incubator for the industrialization, transformation, and application of various new photovoltaic cell technologies. Going forward, my country will continue to focus on key developments in international photovoltaic power generation technology and lead the continuous innovation and development of global photovoltaic power generation industrialization technology.

Photovoltaic cell efficiency is further improving. Crystalline silicon cells will maintain their dominant position for some time, primarily based on PERC technology. N-type crystalline silicon cells using HJT technology, taking into account efficiency, cost, and scale, are expected to become the next mainstream photovoltaic cell technology, demonstrating strong market competitiveness. Photovoltaic cells based on new material systems, such as perovskite cells, and tandem cells are research hotspots. Once industrialized, these technologies mature, they are expected to bring about a step-change increase in photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency.

PV modules are advancing in both high reliability and efficiency. Module technologies such as half-cell, shingled, and multi-busbar will become increasingly widespread, and bifacial modules will gradually become the mainstream in the market, improving module efficiency and power generation capacity. New packaging technologies and materials will further enhance module reliability.

Photovoltaic power generation systems are developing towards intelligentization and diversification. Inverters will evolve towards high-power standalone units, high-voltage access, and intelligentization. Their integration with energy storage technologies will continue to deepen, and the level of intelligent operation and maintenance technologies will continue to improve. Technologies for new scenarios, such as integrated photovoltaic buildings, will continue to improve, expanding the scope for photovoltaic power generation applications.

2. Development direction and goals of photovoltaic power generation technology in the 14th Five-Year Plan

It is predicted that to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, my country's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity will need to reach 900-1000 GW by 2030, and 300-3500 GW by 2060. While photovoltaic power generation presents opportunities and room for development, it also faces numerous challenges. Innovation in photovoltaic power generation technology will be a key factor in addressing these challenges.

Strengthen technological innovation, increase the comprehensive utilization value of land, and improve large-scale photovoltaic development. It's estimated that my country's solar energy development potential could reach hundreds of billions of kilowatts. However, due to the lack of basic farmland, approximately 44 percent of the country's land area cannot be used for photovoltaic and other new energy projects. The National Forestry and Grassland Administration and other departments are increasingly standardizing requirements for new energy development. Under these circumstances, there's an urgent need to further increase the per-unit-area power generation capacity of photovoltaic power generation, reduce the land demand for photovoltaic power generation project construction, and strengthen comprehensive land utilization and improve land use efficiency. On the one hand, by applying new materials and technologies, we can improve the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cell modules and increase the power generation capacity per unit area of ​​photovoltaic modules. On the other hand, we should continuously optimize the design and construction of photovoltaic power generation systems, innovate application models, strengthen intelligent management and operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power stations throughout their entire life cycle, and improve the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic power stations.

The grid-connected performance of photovoltaic power generation has been further improved, meeting the requirements of high-penetration applications. As the penetration of photovoltaic power generation in the power grid continues to increase, the power system will face challenges in stability, power quality, and economic efficiency. As an important component of building a new power system dominated by renewable energy, improving the accuracy of photovoltaic power generation predictions and enhancing the photovoltaic system's active support and resistance to power system disturbances will become important research directions.

The integration of distributed photovoltaics with other sectors will become a crucial component of future photovoltaic power generation. While steadily advancing the construction of large-scale photovoltaic bases, new applications such as integrated photovoltaic buildings, integration of photovoltaics with transportation, and integration of new infrastructure are placing new demands on the performance of photovoltaic products and photovoltaic power generation systems. This requires continuous advancement of photovoltaic power generation technologies based on specific application scenarios.

Improve the green industry chain for the entire life cycle of photovoltaic power generation. With the rapid growth of my country's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity in recent years, the recycling of end-of-life photovoltaic modules has also attracted increasing attention. Combined with the growth rate of my country's photovoltaic power generation, it is expected that the demand for photovoltaic module recycling and processing will peak around 2040. Looking ahead, in line with the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, it is urgent to improve the harmless recycling and processing technology for expired photovoltaic modules and promote its industrialization, thus completing the final link in the green industry chain for the entire life cycle of photovoltaic power generation.

Strengthening production capacity will ensure the implementation of photovoltaic development goals. In 2020, my country's photovoltaic module production capacity reached 244.3 million kilowatts, with actual output reaching 124.6 million kilowatts. Approximately 60% of these modules were sold overseas. Further improvements are needed to ensure photovoltaic production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. On the one hand, we need to further develop intelligent manufacturing technologies for core components such as photovoltaic cells, modules, and inverters, improve intelligent production, and enhance production efficiency and capacity. On the other hand, we need to further develop technological breakthroughs to rapidly achieve domestic production of a small number of key manufacturing equipment components and eliminate potential development bottlenecks.